The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that Facebook is a fascinating dichotomy – and far from a guaranteed success.

 

On one hand, with a reported 60 million user generated profiles, thousands of third-party developers creating innovative new apps every day, and a $15 billion valuation – Facebook is clearly on fire. A true force in the business of “social networking” facilitating conversations among online communities of people.

 

On the other hand, with revenue rumored to be strangely opposite to conventional business and marketing interests, and an embarrassing failure in their first effort to monetize via advertising – Facebook is clearly a work in progress. A baby in the woods filled with giant, old school, highly profitable, competitors greatly experienced in connecting millions of people via traditional communications and directory listings.

 

I am not naïve about Facebook’s position of strength – and I am not suggesting (even for a second) that they are going to disappear tomorrow. I am simply suggesting that it’s very early in the game – and that the web is a killer platform for connecting people which is open to everyone in the world for rapid innovation. In that sense, I believe that the dynamics that helped make FB an overnight success -- could easily accrue to the benefit of experienced players who are well positioned to facilitate conversations and connections among online communities of people at a massive scale.

 

Idearc is one example of a formidable, publicly traded, player with > $3 billion in revenue and literally millions of consumer and business listings already populated in their collection of online and offline directories. While these guys don’t have a developer ecosystem, and they can’t hold a candle to Facebook in terms of innovation – they do have decent technology, they know how to sell directory ads to “main stream” small businesses, and they have the muscle necessary to put listings in front of lots and lots of eyeballs, both offline and online.

 

Another example of a formidable player is Yellowpages.com. The company is led by Charles Stubbs, an old school telco guy who seems to deeply understand the importance of driving “commerce centric” value for small businesses on the web. In a recent interview Stubb’s said he “wants to deliver what small businesses want most -- customer leads”. How’s that for a simple and powerful value?

 

While Facebook is well positioned to continue to grow as a facilitator of “socially centric” networks of people – I think that global telcos are even better positioned to succeed as facilitators of “commerce centric” networks of small businesses and people. I also believe that this “commerce centric” battlefield is where the “social networking” war will be won or lost.